Question

2. The number of pizzas ordered on Friday evenings between 5:30 and 6:30 at a pizza delivery location for the last 10 weeks is shown below. Use exponential smoothing with smoothing constants of .2 and .8 to forecast a value for week 11. Compare your forecasts using MSE. Which smoothing constant would you prefer?

58, 46, 55, 39, 42, 63, 54, 55, 61, 52

What is the MSE for the .2 smoothing constant _____________

What is the forecast for period 11 with the .2 smoothing constant ___________________

What is the MSE for the .8 smoothing constant ______________

What is the MSE for the optimum smoothing constant? ________

What is the forecast for period 11 with the optimum smoothing constant ___________________

Use Excel Solver to determine the optimum smoothing constant.

What is the smoothing constant? _________

What is the MSE for the optimum smoothing constant? ___________

Answer 1

for a=0.2

value(A)	Forecast(F)	(A-F)^2
58
46	58.00	144.00
55	55.60	0.36
39	55.48	271.59
42	52.18	103.71
63	50.15	165.19
54	52.72	1.64
55	52.97	4.10
61	53.38	58.07
52	54.90	8.43
	total	757.11
	average	84.12

MSE for the .2 smoothing constant =84.123

forecast for period 11 with the .2 smoothing constant =54.323

MSE for the .8 smoothing constant =107.170

forecast for period 11 with the .8 smoothing constant =53.560

smoothing constant for optimum =0.1677

MSE for the optimum smoothing constant =84.00

forecast for period 11 with the optimum smoothing constant =54.35