Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |

Value | 18 | 13 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 14 |

A) What type of pattern exists in the data? **(HORIZONTAL
OR TREND)**

B) Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

Week |
Time Series Value |
Forecast |
---|---|---|

1 | 18 | |

2 | 13 | |

3 | 16 | |

4 | 11 | _______ |

5 | 17 | _______ |

6 | 14 | _______ |

MSE: __________

The forecast for week 7: __________

C) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

Week |
Time Series Value |
Forecast |
---|---|---|

1 | 18 | |

2 | 13 | _______ |

3 | 16 | _______ |

4 | 11 | _______ |

5 | 17 | _______ |

6 | 14 | _______ |

MSE: __________

The forecast for week 7: __________

D) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the
exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to
provide the better forecast based on MSE? **(THREE WEEK
MOVING AVERAGE OR EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING?).**
**Explain.**

E) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.

CHOICES:

- Any alpha greater than .2 but less than .58 provides better results

- Any alpha less than .2 provides better results

- Any alpha greater than .58 provides better results

- Any alpha less than .2 or greater than .58 provides better results

Answer #1

A)type of pattern: Horizontal

b)

Time period | Actual Value(A) | Moving avg. Forecast(F) | Forecast error E=|A-F| | Squared Forecast Error |

1 | 18 | |||

2 | 13 | |||

3 | 16 | |||

4 | 11 | 15.67 | 4.67 | 21.78 |

5 | 17 | 13.33 | 3.67 | 13.44 |

6 | 14 | 14.67 | 0.67 | 0.44 |

Total | 9.00 | 35.67 | ||

Average | 3.00 | 11.89 | ||

MAD | MSE |

MSE =11.89

forecast =14

c)

Time period | Actual Value(A) | Forecast(F) | Forecast error E=A-F | Squared Forecast Error |

1 | 18 | |||

2 | 13 | 18.00 | 5.00 | 25.00 |

3 | 16 | 17.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |

4 | 11 | 16.80 | 5.80 | 33.64 |

5 | 17 | 15.64 | 1.36 | 1.85 |

6 | 14 | 15.91 | 1.91 | 3.66 |

Total | 15.07 | 65.15 | ||

Average | 3.01 | 13.03 | ||

MAD | MSE |

MSE =13.03

forecast for week 7 =15.53

d) **THREE WEEK MOVING AVERAGE**

**e)**Any alpha greater than .2 but less than .58
provides better results

Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
19
12
16
11
18
13
(b)
Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
19
2
12
3
16
4
11
5
18
6
13
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE =
What is the forecast for week 7?
(c)
Use α = 0.2 to compute...

Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
13
15
12
16
14
c)Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
18
2
13
18
3
15
4
12
5
16
6
14
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE =____
What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two
decimal places.)
____
(e)Use a...

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Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
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(b)
Develop a three-week moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
(c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the
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If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
(d)...

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Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
22
11
18
10
17
21
13
A) What type of pattern exists in the data?
The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern.
The data appear to follow a trend
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The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern.
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1...

Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic)
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
16
13
18
11
15
14
Develop a three-week moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two
decimal places.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
16
2
13
3
18
4
11
5
15
6
14
MSE: _______
The forecast for week 7: ______
Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
values...

(b)
Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
16
2
11
3
13
4
10
5
14
6
12
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE =
What is the forecast for week 7?
(c)
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
16
2
11
3
13
4...

Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
23
13
21
13
19
21
17
(a)
Create a time series plot.
What type of pattern exists in the data?
- Select your answer -Positive trend patternHorizontal
patternVertical patternNegative trend patternItem 2
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If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not
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2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
24
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20
12
19
23
15
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
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If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not
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Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
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Month
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2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
24
13
20
12
19
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15
(a)
Construct a time series plot.
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labeled: Time Series Value. The points are plotted from left to
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