Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Value | 19 | 12 | 16 | 11 | 18 | 13 |

(b)

Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)

Week | Time Series Value |
Forecast |
---|---|---|

1 | 19 | |

2 | 12 | |

3 | 16 | |

4 | 11 | |

5 | 18 | |

6 | 13 |

Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

MSE =

What is the forecast for week 7?

(c)

Use *α* = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series.

Week | Time Series Value |
Forecast |
---|---|---|

1 | 19 | |

2 | 12 | |

3 | 16 | |

4 | 11 | |

5 | 18 | |

6 | 13 |

Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

MSE =

What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

(d)

Compare the three-week moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach using

*α* = 0.2.

Which appears to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.

The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since
it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach.The exponential
smoothing using *α* = 0.2 provides a better forecast since
it has a smaller MSE than the three-week moving average
approach. The three-week moving
average provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than
the smoothing approach.The exponential smoothing using *α* =
0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the
three-week moving average approach.

(e)

Use a smoothing constant of *α* = 0.4 to compute the
exponential smoothing forecasts.

Week | Time Series Value |
Forecast |
---|---|---|

1 | 19 | |

2 | 12 | |

3 | 16 | |

4 | 11 | |

5 | 18 | |

6 | 13 |

Does a smoothing constant of 0.2 or 0.4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain.

The exponential smoothing using *α* = 0.4 provides a
better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the exponential
smoothing using *α* = 0.2.The exponential smoothing using
*α* = 0.4 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller
MSE than the exponential smoothing using *α* =
0.2. The exponential smoothing using
*α* = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger
MSE than the exponential smoothing using *α* = 0.4.The
exponential smoothing using *α* = 0.2 provides a better
forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential smoothing
using *α* = 0.4.

Answer #1

b)

3 week | ||

Time period | Actual Value(A) | Moving avg. Forecast(F) |

1 | 19 | |

2 | 12 | |

3 | 16 | |

4 | 11 | 15.67 |

5 | 18 | 13.00 |

6 | 13 | 15.00 |

MSE =16.93

forecast for week 7 =14

c)

Time period | Actual Value(A) | Forecast(F) |

1 | 19 | |

2 | 12 | 19.00 |

3 | 16 | 17.60 |

4 | 11 | 17.28 |

5 | 18 | 16.02 |

6 | 13 | 16.42 |

MSE =21.32

forecast for week 7 =15.74

d)

The three-week moving average provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the smoothing approach

e)

Time period | Actual Value(A) | Forecast(F) |

1 | 19 | |

2 | 12 | 19.00 |

3 | 16 | 16.20 |

4 | 11 | 16.12 |

5 | 18 | 14.07 |

6 | 13 | 15.64 |

The exponential smoothing using *α* = 0.4 provides a
better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential
smoothing

(b)
Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
16
2
11
3
13
4
10
5
14
6
12
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE =
What is the forecast for week 7?
(c)
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
16
2
11
3
13
4...

Consider the following time series data.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
22
11
18
10
17
21
13
A) What type of pattern exists in the data?
The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern.
The data appear to follow a trend
pattern.
The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern.
The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern.
B) Develop the three-month moving average forecasts for this
time series.
Month
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1...

Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
13
16
11
17
14
A) What type of pattern exists in the data? (HORIZONTAL
OR TREND)
B) Develop a three-week moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your
answers to two decimal places.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
18
2
13
3
16
4
11
_______
5
17
_______
6
14
_______
MSE:...

Consider the following time series data.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
24
13
20
12
19
23
15
(a)
Construct a time series plot.
A time series plot contains a series of 7 points connected by
line segments. The horizontal axis ranges from 0 to 8 and is
labeled: Month. The vertical axis ranges from 0 to 30 and is
labeled: Time Series Value. The points are plotted from left to
right at regular increments of...

Consider the following time series data.
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 15 13 15 15
(b)
Develop a three-week moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
(c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the
exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a
forecast for week 7.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
(d)...

Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
13
15
12
16
14
c)Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
18
2
13
18
3
15
4
12
5
16
6
14
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE =____
What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two
decimal places.)
____
(e)Use a...

Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
24
13
20
12
19
23
15
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not
round intermediate calculation.
MSE:
The forecast for month 8:
(c)
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values
for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for...

Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
23
13
21
13
19
21
17
(a)
Create a time series plot.
What type of pattern exists in the data?
- Select your answer -Positive trend patternHorizontal
patternVertical patternNegative trend patternItem 2
(b)
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not
round intermediate calculation....

Problem 15-05 (Algorithmic)
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
16
13
18
11
15
14
Develop a three-week moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Round your answers to two
decimal places.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
16
2
13
3
18
4
11
5
15
6
14
MSE: _______
The forecast for week 7: ______
Use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
values...

Consider the following time series data:
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Value 23 13 21 13 19 21 17
b)
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not
round intermediate calculation.
MSE:
The forecast for month 8:
(c)
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast...

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