Question

As a project planner you have an activity that might take the following durations in days: (13 – 16 – 20). According to the management, the probability to complete the project with a duration of 13 days or 20 days is tremendously low. Use the most appropriate formula to estimate the duration of this activity and provide a description of the reason behind

your choice of formula.

Answer 1

solution:

• according to the data given the most appropriate technique is three point estimates.
• In three-point estimates, we use three parameters:

• Most Likely (Tm): This is the activity duration for most cases.

• Optimistic (To): This is the activity duration in the most favorable case.

• Pessimistic (Tp): This is the activity duration in the worst-case scenario.

• 

• t= activity duration.

• 

​​​​​​REASON:

• It uses three estimates to calculate the average value of an activity’s duration.
• It reduces bias, risks, and uncertainties from the duration calculation.
• It is more accurate than analogous and parametric estimation.

this is also my choice of formula to calculate activity duration.