Question

1) Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply...

1) Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table

. YEAR DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000S OF BAGS)

1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 11 15

a) Develop a 3-year moving averages model to forecast sales.

b) Develop a 3-year weighted moving averages model in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1

. c) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.3 to forecast the demand for fertilizer. Assume that last period’s forecast for year 1 is 5,000 bags to begin the procedure

. d) Develop a trend line model to forecast sales. You may use excel to find the intercept and slope coefficients of the trend line.

e) Which of the developed forecasts (3-year moving averages, weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, and trend line) would you use based on each of MAD, MSE, MAPE, and bias? Explain your answer.

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
0 0
Add a commentTranscribed image text
Next >

Homework Answers

Answer #1

0 0
Know the answer?
Your Answer:

Post as a guest

Your Name:

What's your source?

Earn Coins

Coins can be redeemed for fabulous gifts.

Log In

Sign Up

Not the answer you're looking for?
Ask your own homework help question
Similar Questions
The CEO requested forecasts based on the given historical data.  Put your final answers in the table....
The CEO requested forecasts based on the given historical data.  Put your final answers in the table. Round answers to 3 decimals for each method. Show work for full credit. Period Actual Demand 3 Month Moving Average Moving Average Tracking Signal 3 Month Weighted Average Weighted Average Tracking Signal 1 62 X X X X 2 59 X X X X 3 48 X X X X 4 57 56.33 59.4 5 60 54.66 54.4 6 56 55 52.83 MAD X...
For the data given below, forecast period 17 using following methods and suggest the best forecasting...
For the data given below, forecast period 17 using following methods and suggest the best forecasting model 1. Simple Moving Average (Three Period) 2. Weighted Average (50% on t-1, 30% on t-2, 20% on t-3) 3. Exponential Smoothing (α=.1), F1= y intercept from regression) 4. Exponential Smoothing (α=.3), F1= y intercept from regression) 5. Exponential Smoothing with trend (α=.3) and (δ=.3), F1= y intercept from regression)** 5. Exponential Smoothing with trend (α=.1) and (δ=.3), F1= y intercept from regression)** 6....
The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months: MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND 1 28...
The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months: MONTH ACTUAL DEMAND 1 28 2 30 3 29 4 40 5 43 6 42 7 43 8 45 9 44 10 47 a. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an α of 0.20 and an initial forecast (F1) of 28. (Round your intermediate calculations and answers to 2 decimal places.) Month Exponential Smoothing 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 b....
The table below shows the actual demand and the forecasted amounts (where available). Use this table...
The table below shows the actual demand and the forecasted amounts (where available). Use this table to answer questions. Actual Forecast 1 100 - 2 95 - 3 102 - 4 100 105 5 110 111 6 120 115 7 112 115 8 130 125 9 130 128 What is the mean absolute deviation for the forecast? 3.5 2.33 3.89 2.86 What is the mean squared error for the forecast (round to two decimal point)? 89.12 9.94 14.83 4.72 The...
Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months. Month...
Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months. Month Demand 1 20 2 16 3 17 4 19 5 19 6 19 a) The MAD based on the Exponential smoothing α = 0.3 method =  (4 decimal places). b) The MAD based on the 3 months moving average method =  (in 4 decimal places). c) The MSE based on the 3 months moving average method = . d) Use MAD as an criterion to evaluate...
1. Suppose the following data represents total revenues (in $ millions) for a mining   company. Year...
1. Suppose the following data represents total revenues (in $ millions) for a mining   company. Year Revenue 4-Year Moving Average 4 Weighted Moving Average Weights 4,3,2,1    Exponential smoothing          α = 0.6 2010 75 2011 81 2012 74 2013 79 2014 69 2015 92 2016 73 2017 85 2018 90 2019 73 2020 Forecast         Use 2 decimal places, Compute the 4-year moving averages and forecast the revenue for 2020. ( 4 marks) Compute the 4-year weighted moving averages...
The following times series shows the demand for a particular product over the past 10 months....
The following times series shows the demand for a particular product over the past 10 months. Month Value 1 324 2 311 3 303 4 314 5 323 6 313 7 302 8 315 9 312 10 326 a. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE, MAPE and a forecast for month 11. b. Calculate MSE and MAPE for three month moving average ? c. Compare the three-month moving average forecast...
Part 1 : Which of the following is often used to forecast the market penetration of...
Part 1 : Which of the following is often used to forecast the market penetration of a new service? A. Regression B. Historical analogy C. Cross-impact analysis D. N-period moving average E. Exponential smoothing with trend adjustment Part 2: Which of the following types of forecasting models uses a specified number of recent observations to make a short-term forecast of demand? A. Regression B. Econometric C. Moving average D. Cross-impact analysis E. Exponential smoothing Part 3: How does the moving...
In the following table, demand for Heart transplant surgery at WG hospital has increased steadily in...
In the following table, demand for Heart transplant surgery at WG hospital has increased steadily in the past few years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 Heart Transplants 45 50 52 56 58 ? a) Use exponential smoothing, first with smoothing constant of 0.6 and then with one of 0.9, to develop forecast for year 2 through 6.(Assume 1st year’s forecast to be 45) b) Use three year moving average two forecast demand in years 4, 5, 6. c)...
Problem 1: Auto sales at Carmen’s Chevrolet are shown below. Develop a 3-week moving average. Week...
Problem 1: Auto sales at Carmen’s Chevrolet are shown below. Develop a 3-week moving average. Week Auto Sales 1 8 2 10 3 9 4 11 5 10 6 13 7 - Problem 2: Carmen’s decides to forecast auto sales by weighting the three weeks as follows: Weights Applied Period 3 Last week 2 Two weeks ago 1 Three weeks ago 6 Total Problem 3: A firm uses simple exponential smoothing with to forecast demand. The forecast for the week...
ADVERTISEMENT
Need Online Homework Help?

Get Answers For Free
Most questions answered within 1 hours.

Ask a Question
ADVERTISEMENT