Question

In the following table, demand for Heart transplant surgery at WG hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6

Heart Transplants 45 50 52 56 58 ?

a) Use exponential smoothing, first with smoothing constant of 0.6 and then with one of 0.9, to develop forecast for year 2 through 6.(Assume 1st year’s forecast to be 45)

b) Use three year moving average two forecast demand in years 4, 5, 6.

c) Graph the original data and the two forecasts.

*please use table in answer

Answer 1

a)

• Forecast using Exponential smoothing forecast with smoothing constant 0.6
  • Year 2 - 45
  • Year 3 - 48
  • Year 4 - 50.4
  • Year 5 - 53.76
  • Year 6 - 56.304

• Forecast using Exponential smoothing forecast with smoothing constant 0.9
  • Year 2 - 45
  • Year 3 - 45
  • Year 4 - 47.7
  • Year 5 - 50.13
  • Year 6 - 53.397

b)

Forecast using three year moving average:

• Year 4 - 49
• Year 5 - 52.67
• Year 6 - 55.33

c)

The actual and forecasted demands are -

We graph the original data and the two forecasts from the above table as below.