Question

would the rise of hostilities in the middle east have been as significant if not for the fall of the soviet union?

Answer 1

Through changing the path of the Syrian civil war and saving an old client, Moscow has sent a message that it is a reliable partner to other Middle Eastern regimes. Hardly anyone would doubt that after decades of undisputed U.S. military dominance, Moscow has established itself as an important strategic and security player at the world's proverbial crossroads. Russia has established itself as a reliable interlocutor for all parties to disputes over the region.

Russia's main successes also symbolize the limits of its strength and influence in the Middle East. In a nation ravaged by violent rivalries, there is little value to being able to talk to everyone without taking sides. Without major power projection and economic resources capacities, and with its political capacity largely confined to a well-advertised willingness to speak with all parties, Russia's clout is not enough to address any of the myriad issues facing the region.

Russia's return to the Middle East is essential for the United States but hardly a seismic shift. Much of what Russia has done is due to the US reconsidering its global commitments. The challenge for the U.S. is identifying and protecting its own interests there, getting a better understanding of Russian interests and policy-makers, and investigating the degree to which U.S. and Russian interests actually conflict and where they don't.

When U.S. decision-makers shape U.S. strategy in the Middle East, they will need to think more creatively about how to draw on the productive attempt to deconflict with Russia in Syria and create a model of coexistence across the region as a whole.