Question

After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 19 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +6.33 units. Period Actual Period Actual 1 202 6 251 2 221 7 266 3 216 8 276 4 221 9 281 5 241 10 Use α=.50 and β=.10, and TAF of 245 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.) t Period TAFt 6 7 8 9 10 pleaase show steps on how to solve

Answer #1

period: | 6 | α= | 0.4 | |

forecast= | 245.00 | β= | 0.05 | |

trend= | 6.330 | |||

smoothed
forecast S_{t} =TAF_{t}+α*(At-TAF_{t}) |
||||

smoothed
trend T_{t}
=T_{t-1}+β(TAF_{t}-TAF_{t-1}-T_{t-1}) |

from given data :

Period | actual | St | Tt | Forecast(TAF) |

1 | 202 | |||

2 | 221 | |||

3 | 216 | |||

4 | 221 | 0 | ||

5 | 241 | 245.00 | ||

6 | 251 | 243.40 | 6.33 | 249.73 |

7 | 266 | 250.24 | 6.25 | 256.49 |

8 | 276 | 260.29 | 6.28 | 266.57 |

9 | 281 | 270.34 | 6.47 | 276.81 |

10 | 278.48 | 6.65 | 285.14 |

therefore :

t |
TAF |

6 |
249.73 |

7 |
256.49 |

8 |
266.57 |

9 |
276.81 |

10 |
285.14 |

After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room
manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing
model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate
of trend is based on the net change of 23 for the three
periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +7.67 units.
Period
Actual
Period
Actual
1
208
6
261
2
231
7
276
3
226
8
286
4
231
9
291
5
251
10
Use α=.60 and β=.15, and TAF...

Using ? = 0.5 and the following data, compute exponential
smoothing forecasts for periods 2 through 8. (Round your
intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)
Period: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Forecast: 10 Actual demand: 12 15 11 13 11 11
10

The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally
adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual
and predicted values are as follows:
Period
Demand
Predicted
1
135
113
2
195
200
3
155
150
4
90
102
5
85
80
6
130
135
7
125
128
8
130
124
9
95
109
10
150
150
11
105
94
12
90
80
13
125
140
14
135
128
a. Compute MAD for the fifth period,...

The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally
adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual
and predicted values are as follows:
Period
Demand
Predicted
1
135
113
2
195
200
3
155
150
4
90
102
5
85
80
6
130
135
7
125
128
8
130
124
9
95
109
10
150
150
11
105
94
12
90
80
13
125
140
14
135
128
a. Compute MAD for the fifth period,...

A large Portland manufacturer wants to forecast demand for a
piece of pollution-control equipment. A review of past sales
(Upper A Subscript tAt),
as shown below, indicates that an increasing trend is
present. Smoothing constants are assigned the values of alphaα =
0.20 and betaβ = 0.4
The firm assumes the initial forecast for month 1 (Upper F
1F1) was 11.00 units and the trend over that period Upper
T 1T1 was 2.00 units.
Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, Forecasts (Upper...

Problem 3-17
A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain
over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales during the last 15 days
were
Day:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Number sold:
32
35
38
37
44
43
41
44
42
Day:
10
11
12
13
14
15
Number sold:
48
43
53
44
50
49
a. Assume the data refer to demand rather than
sales. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with an initial
forecast of 48 for Day...

A loan made on March 14 is due September 13 of the following
year. Find the exact time for the loan in a non-leap year and a
leap year.
days.
The exact time in a non-leap year is ? days
The exact time in a leap year is ? days.
Data Table
Sequential Numbers for Dates of the Year
Day of Month
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1
1
32
60
91
121...

Use the Manufacturing database from “Excel Databases.xls” on
Blackboard. Use Excel to develop a multiple regression model to
predict Cost of Materials by Number of Employees, New Capital
Expenditures, Value Added by Manufacture, and End-of-Year
Inventories.
Locate the observed value that is in Industrial Group 12 and has
7 employees. Based on the model and the multiple regression output,
what is the corresponding residual of this observation? Write your
answer as a number, round to 2 decimal places.
SIC Code...

Researchers in a 2015 study by Flannery et al. sought to
estimate the effectiveness of the seasonal influenza vaccine in
preventing acute respiratory infection (ARI). A total of 507
subjects from Texas who showed symptoms of ARI were recruited for
this study. The data provided show the result of each subject's
test for influenza.
Click to download the data in your preferred format.
CrunchIt! CSV Excel
JMP Mac-Text Minitab
PC-Text R ...

Your firm works in construction and buys ASTM A325M8S bolts in
very large numbers. You are interested in purchasing bolts from
different suppliers and have obtained and tested samples of 200
bolts from three suppliers: Allnutt, Boltzman, Coachers.You have
tested these in your new bolt testing machine, purchased after you
had discovered your old bolt testing machine was performing
erratically. (For the purposes of this question, you are safe to
assume that the new machine works perfectly and that its...

ADVERTISEMENT

Get Answers For Free

Most questions answered within 1 hours.

ADVERTISEMENT

asked 4 minutes ago

asked 13 minutes ago

asked 20 minutes ago

asked 24 minutes ago

asked 31 minutes ago

asked 41 minutes ago

asked 55 minutes ago

asked 1 hour ago

asked 1 hour ago

asked 1 hour ago

asked 1 hour ago

asked 1 hour ago