Question

After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential...

After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 19 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +6.33 units. Period Actual Period Actual 1 202 6 251 2 221 7 266 3 216 8 276 4 221 9 281 5 241 10 Use α=.50 and β=.10, and TAF of 245 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.) t Period TAFt 6 7 8 9 10 pleaase show steps on how to solve

Homework Answers

Answer #1
period: 6 α= 0.4
forecast= 245.00 β= 0.05
trend= 6.330
smoothed forecast St =TAFt+α*(At-TAFt)
smoothed trend Tt =Tt-1+β(TAFt-TAFt-1-Tt-1)

from given data :

Period actual St Tt Forecast(TAF)
1 202
2 221
3 216
4 221 0
5 241 245.00
6 251 243.40 6.33 249.73
7 266 250.24 6.25 256.49
8 276 260.29 6.28 266.57
9 281 270.34 6.47 276.81
10 278.48 6.65 285.14

therefore :

t TAF
6 249.73
7 256.49
8 266.57
9 276.81
10 285.14
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