Question

After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 23 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +7.67 units.

Period	Actual	Period	Actual
1	208	6	261
2	231	7	276
3	226	8	286
4	231	9	291
5	251	10

Use α=.60 and β=.15, and TAF of 255 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

t Period	TAFt
6
7
8
9
10

This is my second time posting this and I need help anyone out there

Answer 1

from given data:

smoothed forecast St =TAFt+α*(At-TAFt)

smoothed trend Tt =Tt-1+β(TAFt-TAFt-1-Tt-1)

Period	actual	St	Tt	Forecast(TAF)
1	208
2	231
3	226
4	231			0
5	251			255.00
6	261	252.60	7.67	260.27
7	276	260.71	7.31	268.02
8	286	272.81	7.38	280.18
9	291	283.67	8.09	291.77
10		291.31	8.62	299.92
11

from above:

t	TAF
6	260.27
7	268.02
8	280.18
9	291.77
10	299.92