Problem 3-17
A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain
over-the-counter pain reliever. Daily sales during the last 15 days
were
Day: | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Number sold: | 32 | 35 | 38 | 37 | 44 | 43 | 41 | 44 | 42 |
Day: | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |||
Number sold: | 48 | 43 | 53 | 44 | 50 | 49 | |||
a. Assume the data refer to demand rather than
sales. Using trend-adjusted exponential smoothing with an initial
forecast of 48 for Day 8, an initial trend estimate of 2, and α = β
= .2, develop demand forecasts for Days 9 through 16. Then compute
the resultant MSE using the error values from Days 8 through 15.
(Round your intermediate period-by-period forecast and
error values to 3 decimal places. Round your final MSE answer to 3
decimal places.)
MSE ____?
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