Question

# The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand...

The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:

 Period Demand Predicted 1 135 113 2 195 200 3 155 150 4 90 102 5 85 80 6 130 135 7 125 128 8 130 124 9 95 109 10 150 150 11 105 94 12 90 80 13 125 140 14 135 128

a. Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with ? = .05. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.)

 t Period A Demand MADt 1 135 2 195 3 155 4 90 5 85 6 130 7 125 8 130 9 95 10 150 11 105 12 90 13 125 14 135

b. Compute a tracking signal for periods 5 through 14 using the initial and updated MADs. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.)

 t Period A Demand Tracking Signal 1 135 2 195 3 155 4 90 5 85 6 130 7 125 8 130 9 95 10 150 11 105 12 90 13 125 14 135

(a) MADs and (b) Tracking Signals are calculated as below

Formula:

D7 =D6+(B6-D6)*0.05 copy to D7:D15

E6 =ABS(B6-C6) copy to E7:E15

F6 =B6-C6 copy to F7:F15

G6 =F6+G5 copy to G6:G15

H6 =G6/AVERAGE(\$E\$6:E6) copy to H6:H15