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Polling prior to an election indicates that candidate A has a 5% lead with a margin...

Polling prior to an election indicates that candidate A has a 5% lead with a margin of error of 3%. When the actual voting takes place candidate A losses by 4%. How can you explain this result?

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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Answer #1

Polling prior to an election indicates only the results that are derived from the sample of population so they doesn't reflect 100% truth. Although they are mostly correct but always there is some confidence value associated with them that describes if sampling in done on many times than in how much cases the results would be same as derived.

So the results here may not coincide with what the opinion polls show , but due to the fact that we cannot sample entire population and there me be chances that either people have lied or s signifant group of population remains without being getting surveyed. We get such a result.

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