Question

Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election prior to results being tallied. Suppose a referendum to increase funding for education is on the ballot in a large town​ (voting population over​ 100,000). An exit poll of

200 voters finds that 92 voted for the referendum. How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.51​?

Based on your​ result, comment on the dangers of using exit polling to call elections.

How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.51​?

The probability that fewer than 92 people voted for the referendum is

nothing.

​(Round to four decimal places as​ needed.)

Comment on the dangers of using exit polling to call elections. Choose the correct answer below.

A.

The result is unusual because the probability that Modifying Above p with care tp is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is greater than​ 5%. Thus, it is not unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election if exit polling alone is considered.

B.

The result is not is not unusual because the probability that Modifying Above p with care tp is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is less than​ 5%. Thus, it is unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election if exit polling alone is considered.

C.

The result is not is not unusual because the probability that

Modifying Above p with care tp is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is greater than​ 5%. Thus, it is not is not

unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election if exit polling alone is considered.

D.

The result is unusual because the probability that Modifying Above p with care tp is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is less than​ 5%. Thus, it is unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election if exit polling alone is considered.

Answer 1

Solution:

The probability that fewer than 92 people voted for the referendum is:

Now using the z-score formula, we have:

Now using the standard normal table, we have:

Therefore, the probability that fewer than 92 people voted for the referendum is 0.0786

Comment on the dangers of using exit polling to call elections. Choose the correct answer below.

Answer: C. The result is not unusual because the probability that is equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion is greater than​ 5%. Thus, it is not unusual for a wrong call to be made in an election if exit polling alone is considered.