Question

why it is important to consider margin of error when looking at election poll results. For example, if I said that my survey suggests that the Democratic candidate was going to receive 45% of the vote and the Republican candidate would receive 42% of the vote with a margin of error of 3%, what could you conclude about the election? Again, why is it important to consider margin of error?

Answer 1

Often times, we estimate the characteristics of a population based on a sample. This is prone to error and Margin of Error tries to incorporate just that. This helps in not making erroneous assumptions.

It is important to consider margin of error when looking at election poll results because it includes the tolerance level on either sides of the predicted value of votes.

In this case with a MoE of 3%,

Democratic candidate can receive 45-3 or 45+3 i.e any number of votes between 42 and 48 %

Similarly, the Republican candidate can receive 42-3 or 42+3 i.e any number of votes between 39 and 45 %

It is important to consider this MoE because it is used to measure and report the level of precision in a study’s sample results.

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