Question

You only get one Christmas present from your parents. Initially, you think it’s five times as...

  1. You only get one Christmas present from your parents. Initially, you think it’s five times as likely that your parents are getting you a pair of shoes rather than something else. Then you see the gift, which does kind of look like a shoe box. You think the probability that the box would look like this if it contained a pair of shoes is 75% and the probability that the box would look like this if it didn’t contain a pair of shoes is 25%. Updating on this evidence, what is the probability that you got a pair of shoes? Show your work.
Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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