Question

EF Games is considering coming out with a new action based game for the We're Talking Fun (WTF) game system. Based on past performance there is a 70% chance that the game will be successful and a 30% chance of failure. Market research can help revise these probabilities. In the past, the successful products were predicted by market research to be successful 90% of the time. However, for products that failed the market research predicted they would be successful 20% of the time. If a new product is introduced the probability of being successful is

Answer 1

P[ the game will be successful ] = 70% = 0.7

P[ the game will be unsuccessful ] = 30% = 0.3

P[ the game will be successful | predicted by market research to be successful ] = 90% = 0.90

P[ the game will be successful | predicted by market research to be unsuccessful ] = 20% = 0.2

P[ the game will be successful ] = P[ the game will be successful | predicted by market research to be successful ]*P[ the game will be successful ] + P[ the game will be successful | predicted by market research to be unsuccessful ]*P[ the game will be unsuccessful ]

P[ the game will be successful ] = 0.9*0.7 + 0.2*0.3

P[ the game will be successful ] = 0.63 + 0.06

P[ the game will be successful ] = 0.69

P[ the game will be successful ] = 69%