At a certain coffee shop, all the customers buy a cup of coffee and some also buy a doughnut. The shop owner believes that the number of cups he sells each day is normally distributed with a mean of
360
cups and a standard deviation of
21
cups. He also believes that the number of doughnuts he sells each day is independent of the coffee sales and is normally distributed with a mean of
170
doughnuts and a standard deviation of
10
.
a) The shop is open every day but Sunday. Assuming day-to-day sales are independent, what's the probability he'll sell over 2000 cups of coffee in a week?
b) If he makes a profit of 50 cents on each cup of coffee and 40 cents on each doughnut, can he reasonably expect to have a day's profit of over $300? Explain
. c) What's the probability that on any given day he 'll sell a doughnut to more than half of his coffee customers?
Answer:
Given,
Mean = 360
Standard deviation = 21
a)
z score = (x - u)/s
substitute values
= (2000 - 6*360)/(6*21)
= - 1.27
P(X > 2000) = P(z > - 1.27)
= 0.8979577 [since from z table]
= 0.8980
= 89.80%
b)
z = (x - u)/s
substitute values
= [300 - 0.5*360 - 0.4*170] / sqrt(0.5^2*21^2 + 0.4^2*10^2)
= 4.63
Here there is no reasonable chance to earn profit of more than 300 due to that 300 > 7 standard deviations from mean.
c)
z = (x - u)/s
substitute values
= [0 - (170 - 0.5*360)] / sqrt(10^2 + 0.5^2*21^2)
= 0.69
P(Y - 0.5X > 0) = 0.2450971 [since from z table]
= 0.2451
= 24.51%
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