The replacement fertility rate for developed countries is 2.1 children per woman. Why is it that a country can have a fertility rate of 1.6 for decades and still grow in population size? How long will this population growth last assuming that the fertility rate remains unchanged?
Replacement fertility rate will lead to zero population growth
only if mortality rates remain constant and migration has no
effect. The chances of such situation arising in the present
environment are bleak. Fertility rate, therefore, is not directly
related to population growth and it is instead better to examine
actual or projected population growth directly, then subsequently
relating such growth to fertility, mortality, and migration.
World population will stop growing when the birth rate equals the
death rate; no one knows whether this will happen or not and when
will this happen so one cannot comment on how long the population
growth will last assuming that fertility rate remains unchanged
over years.
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