Assume perfect capital markets. The table below gives the probability distributions of a share of the Omega corporation and the broad stock market.
State |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
Probability |
25% |
50% |
25% |
Omega |
-4% |
1% |
10% |
Market |
-3% |
2% |
5% |
Expected return on Omega Share is 0.25(-4%)+0.5(1%)+0.25(10%) = 2%
Expected return on broad stock market is 0.25(-3%)+0.5(2%)+0.25(5%) = 1.5%
Risk of Omega share is the square root of summation of {(x-mean)^2*p(x)}. So, it gives sqrt{(-4%-2%)^2*0.25+(1%-2%)^2*0.5+(10%-2%)^2*0.25} = sqrt(0.00255) = 5.05%
Risk of broad stock market is the square root of summation of {(x-mean)^2*p(x)}. So, it gives {(-3%-1.5%)^2*0.25+(2%-1.5%)^2*0.5+(5%-1.5%)^2*0.25} = sqrt(0.000825) = 2.87%
To calculate market beta, we can use the formula, Beta=Covariance/Variance of the market. Calculating Covariance, summation of (Return1-average return1)*(Return2-average return2)/n-1. which gives 0.000519. So, Beta=0.000519/2.87%^2 which is 0.6287.
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