You currently manufacture imitation Beany Babies. The manufacturing capacity is at 100,000, and the cost is $3 each. There is a 40% probability that demand will be high, with demand for 250,000 units at a price of $5 each. Otherwise, demand will be low, with maximum sales at 60,000 units at a price of $4 each. You have the option of spending $100,000 to increase production capacity to 300,000 units. Should you increase capacity? How much would you pay for a perfectly accurate forecast of demand? For an 80% accurate forecast? Illustrate your answer using a decision tree.
Sales value with high demand = 250000 * 5 = 1250000
Sales value with low demand = 60000 * 4 = 240000
Expected demand = Probability of high demand * sales value of high demand + probability of low demand * sales value of low demand = 0.4 * 1250000 + 0.6 * 240000 = 644000
Expected demand = 250000 * 0.4 + 60000 * 0.6 = 136000
Manifacturing cost of expected demand = 136000 * 3 = 408000
Profit = Sales value - manufacturing cost = 644000 - 408000 = 236000
The amount of investment is 300000 so yes we should invest in the same as the profit is higher than the expected profit.
with 80% accuracy expected profit = 236000 * 0.8 = 188800
For a perfectly accurate demand we are ready to pay 188800
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