Question

Consider the following time series data:

Month |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |

Value |
25 | 14 | 19 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 16 |

(a) |
Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. |

If required, round your answer to one decimal place. | |

What is the forecast for month 8? | |

If required, round your answer to one decimal place. Do not round intermediate calculation. | |

(b) |
Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. |

If required, round your answer to one decimal place. Do not round intermediate calculation. | |

What is the forecast for month 8? | |

If required, round your answer to one decimal place. | |

(c) |
Which method appears to provide the better forecast? |

- Select your answer -NaïveAll data averageItem 5 |

Answer #1

a)

month | value | Forecast | |error|^2 |

1 | 25 | ||

2 | 14 | 25 | 121 |

3 | 19 | 14 | 25 |

4 | 11 | 19 | 64 |

5 | 20 | 11 | 81 |

6 | 22 | 20 | 4 |

7 | 16 | 22 | 36 |

total | 331 | ||

average | 55.17 | ||

MSE = |
55.2 |
||

forecast = |
16.0 |

b)

month | value | Forecast | (error)^2 |

1 | 25 | ||

2 | 14 | 25.00 | 121.00 |

3 | 19 | 19.50 | 0.25 |

4 | 11 | 19.33 | 69.44 |

5 | 20 | 17.25 | 7.56 |

6 | 22 | 17.80 | 17.64 |

7 | 16 | 18.50 | 6.25 |

total | 222.15 | ||

average | 37.02 | ||

MSE = |
37.0 |
||

forecast = |
18.1 |

c)

since MSE for **All data average** is smaller, this
one is better

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If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
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4
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next period.
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
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