Question

I have the following range:

8 151

8 348

9 263

9 978

10 271

9 906

9 983

10 578

11 137

11 194

11 143

10 713

10 592

10 926

11 257

11 500

11 706

11 872

I used the naive forecast and calculated RMSE and MAD.
RMSE = 408, MAD = 332.

What conclusions can I make? Are these RMSE and MAD too high for this range? Is the model good? I need a detailed explanation, please.

Answer 1

RMSE means Root mean square error it is the difference of predicted and original value .

It is used when there is need toh find how much the data values are far from each other and how much data is deviated . Less value of RMSE means data values are near toh each other , large value of RMSE means data values are far from each other . As there is no fixed range for RMSE which tell us it was good or not .

MAD means mean/ median absolute deviation we can calculate it by using mean/median value and find difference of each value form mean / median it gives MAD and we can find ho much data is far from mean /median . It tells us on an average how far is the values of given data