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Suppose that a rare disease occurs in the general population in only one of every 10,000...

Suppose that a rare disease occurs in the general population in only one of every 10,000 people. A medical test is used to detect the disease. If a person has the disease, the probability that the test result is positive is 0.99. If a person does not have the disease, the probability that the test result is positive is 0.02. Given that a person’s test result is positive, find the probability that this person truly has the rare disease?

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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So, If a person is tested positive, there is probability of 0.49261% that he has that rare disease.

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