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A virus has a rare occurrence:   the virus occurs,   on average,     20 out of every 200000...

A virus has a rare occurrence:   the virus occurs,   on average,     20 out of every 200000 people.

An antibody test has been devised.    Among those with the virus,    the test correctly detects the person has been infected with probability 0.95.      

Among those without the virus,   the test correctly identifies the person as virus free 0.95 % of the time.

Suppose  you have tested positive for the disease.    How worried should you be?

Answer this by computing your probability of having the disease.    (4 decimal places)

Hint:   tree,   then two way table, then conditional probability

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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