Question

You are a Florida official  responsible for controlling crop damage. A local infestation of medflies  has just been detected, threatening the citrus region, where it would destroy a crop worth billions of dollars annually. You have 24 hours to come up with a plan to rid Florida of this pest within 2 months. There are 3 ways of treating the infestation: burning the infested area, spraying the infested area, or raising a crop of sterile males. Burning is expensive and has unintended consequences. After spraying you can determine its effectiveness after one month and then decide to spray again or not. It takes one month to raise sterile males. Female medflies mate only once so if a female medfly mates with a sterile male she will have no offspring. The cost and the probability of success associated with each option are presented in the table below;

Action	Cost in millions	P(success)
Burn now	60	1
Burn in one month	84	1
Burn in two months	117.6	1
Spray now	3	1/3
Spray in one month	4.2	1/3
Incubate sterile males and release if needed	6	1/3

Draw a decision tree for this problem. Include chance nodes and decision nodes. Include probabilities associated with each chance node. Include total costs at each terminal node. Rollback the tree and determine the optimal strategy.

Answer 1

Answer:-

Given That:-

A local infestation of medflies has just been detected, threatening the citrus region, where it would destroy a crop worth billions of dollars annually. You have 24 hours to come up with a plan to rid Florida of this pest within 2 months.

Draw a decision tree for this problem. Include chance nodes and decision nodes. Include probabilities associated with each chance node. Include total costs at each terminal node. Rollback the tree and determine the optimal strategy.

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