Question

Need worked out excel solution/formulas for chapter 12, problem 13, wedding planner. Intro to Management Science

145 invitations

50 invitations no one will show up

For 25- 75% will attend alone, 20% will not attend, 5% will bring someone a companion

For 60- 90% attend with companion, 5% will attend alone, and 5% will not attend

For the last 10- 80% that they will not attend, 15% will attend alone, 5% will attend with companion.

The wedding date for a couple is quickly approaching, and the wedding planner must provide the caterer an estimate of how many people will attend the reception so that the appropriate quantity of food is prepared for the buffet. The following table contains information on the number of RSVP guests for the 145 invitations. Unfortunately, the number of guests does not always correspond to the number of RSVPed guests.

Based on her experience, the wedding planner knows it is extremely rare for guests to attend a wedding if they notified that they will not be attending. Therefore, the wedding planner will assume that no one from these 50 invitations will attend. The wedding planner estimates that the each of the 25 guests planning to come solo has a 75% chance of attending alone, a 20% chance of not attending, and a 5% chance of bringing a companion. For each of the 60 RSVPs who plan to bring a companion, there is a 90% chance that she or he will attend with a companion, a 5% chance of attending solo, and a 5% chance of not attending at all. For the 10 people who have not responded, the wedding planner assumes that there is an 80% chance that each will not attend, a 15% chance each will attend alone, and a 5% chance each will attend with a companion.

RSVPed Guests	Number of Invitations
0	50
1	25
2	60
No response	10

1. Assist the wedding planner by constructing a spreadsheet simulation model to determine the expected number of guests who will attend the reception.

2. To be accommodating hosts, the couple has instructed the wedding planner to use the Monte Carlo simulation model to determine X, the minimum number of guests for which the caterer should prepare the meal, so that there is at least a 90% chance that the actual attendance is less than or equal to X. What is the best estimate for the value of X?

Answer 1

Using the monte carlo simulations we found that the maximum number of guests at a given time can be:

190 and the minimum number of guests can be 0

We need to find the number of guests so that there is atleast 90% chance that the actual attendance is less than or equal to X which is 155.

Hence the wedding planner must ask the caterer to prepare a meal for 155 persons so that there is atleast 90% chance that the actual attendance is less than or equal to 155.