Question

when watching a game many people will say that a given player is due for a home run or hit after a period of uncharacteristically low offense. let's say willie mays is in a slump-he has made an out the last 10 times at bat. what are his chances of getting a hit? is he due for a hit?

Answer 1

When watching a game, many people will say that a given player is due for a home run or hit after a period of uncharacteristically low offense. This prediction is based on misconception about "law of averages", also known as "gambler's fallacy". The law of averages is a spurious belief that any deviation in expected probability will have to average out in a small number of consecutive expriments, but this is not necessarily true. In the case of Willie Mays , baseball center fielder, is in a slump-he has made an out the last 10 times at bat. We cannot predict that since he was not successful for the last 10 times,he has high probability of success in the next time by law of averages because law of large numbers involves hundreds and thousands of trials and we cannot apply it just after 10 trials. So, chances of getting a hit remains the same and   he is not due for a hit.