Match the description of a bias with its name
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HEURISTICS - are mental shortcuts that we use to process information or to make decisions. Rather than thinking about information deeply using logic and rationality, we use these shortcuts which are based on past experiences to make quick decisions, However, they can lead to cognitive biases and we can end up making errors in decision making.
1) Making a decision based on a recent experience
E.g, choosing a defensive head coach because your last (bum of a) head coach was offensive
ANSWER - E Availability bias
EXPLANATION
The availability heuristic is also known as availability bias. It is a mental shortcut that relies on how available or easily recallable information or examples come to a person's mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision. It is based on the premise that if something can be recalled, it must be important, or at least more important than alternative solutions that are not as readily recalled. Therefore if a person uses this heuristic they will tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news. Eg when asked in a survey, participants were asked to choose which mode of transport is the most dangerous ie whether it was airways or by car. Most of the people reported airways over cars. This is because people could recall more news about air crashes that made the headlines in a more dramatic manner (breaking news) but every day road accidents are not given that same importance and therefore are easily forgotten when in reality car accidents are more than air crashes. Therefore people could recall more incidents of air crashes then road accidents
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2. Relying on information that supports what you already
believe to be correct to make a decision.
E.g., Deciding that your team stinks based on poor plays by a few
players and ignoring the strong play by many others.
ANSWER - A Confirmation bias
EXPLANATION
Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information that confirms or supports one's prior personal beliefs or values while ignoring any other information that contradicts this belief. Eg if you have a predetermined belief that your boss hates you, you will only see all those incidents where he was mean to you and forgot other incidents where he praised you and gave you important tasks. In confirmation bias, the person only sees one side of a situation
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3. Making a decision informed
disproportionately by one specific piece of information.
E.g., Choosing who to vote for president based on a single issue
without considering each candidate's positions on a variety of
other important issues.
ANSWER - C Anchoring bias
EXPLANATION
In Anchoring bias, an individual makes a decision by taking the initial information presented and setting a point of judgment known as the focal point, the threshold, or the anchor. Once the value of this anchor is set, all future negotiations, arguments, estimates, etc. are discussed in relation to the anchor. Any information that aligns with the anchor is accepted, while information that isn't, is eliminated. This bias occurs when interpreting future information using this anchor. For eg in the above example, the individual has set a benchmark or anchor for judging candidates for the presidency for eg it could be based on looks, the party he represents, his views about issues that are important to the individual, gender, age, etc and then measure the candidates according to this anchor. If they fall into it he will choose them and reject the others even though in other areas they may have been very successful.
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4. Making a decision based on assumptions about the
people involved or situation based on generalities.
E.g., Choosing to buy a car salesman because he is taller than the
others.
ANSWER - B Representative bias
EXPLANATION
It is a cognitive bias involving how we judge others or events based on how representative they are to a group similar to them. For eg believing that all librarians wear specks. Representative bias is based on similarity and it ignores true data. We may tend to overestimate the likelihood that something will occur. Just because an event or object is representative does not mean its occurrence is more probable.
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5. Believing that you knew the outcome of a
situation before it happened.
E.g., Saying to your co-worker that you always knew that FitBits
was going to be a hit.
ANSWER - D Hindsight bias
EXPLANATION
Hindsight bias is also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon. It refers to the common tendency for people to perceive events that have already occurred as having been more predictable than they actually were before the events took place. People often believe that they correctly interpreted the outcome of an event and knew it all along that this ould have happened after the event had occurred. In reality, nobody can predict the outcome of an event. Hindsight bias may cause distortions of our memories of what we knew and/or believed before an event occurred, and is a significant source of overconfidence regarding our ability to predict the outcomes of future events. Eg many football fans choose a team that would win the match and after they won they would say they knew it and had predicted it before.
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