Question

In 2007, Bob Jones University ended its fall semester a week early because of a whooping cough outbreak; 158 students were isolated with suspected infection and another 1200 given antibiotics as a precaution.14 Authorities react strongly to whooping cough outbreaks because the disease is so contagious. Because the effect of childhood vaccination often wears off by late adolescence, treat the Bob Jones students as if they were unvaccinated. It appears that approximately 1400 students were exposed. What is the probability that at least 75% of these students would develop infections if not treated? (Fortunately, whooping cough is much less serious after infancy.)

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