Question

Consider the following data:

Monthly Profit of a Gym

Month	Jan-12	Feb-12	Mar-12	Apr-12	May-12	Jun-12	Jul-12	Aug-12	Sep-12
Profit ($)	6,150	5,903	5,304	5,077	5,320	5,998	7,419	6,299	6,012

Step 1 of 5:

Determine the three-period moving average for the next time period. If necessary, round your answer to one decimal place.

Step 2 of 5:

What are the MAD, MSE and MAPE scores for the three-period moving average? Round any intermediate calculations, if necessary, to no less than six decimal places, and round your final answer to one decimal place.

Step 3 of 5:

Determine the exponentially smoothed forecast for the next time period using a smoothing constant, α, of 0.35. If necessary, round your answer to one decimal place.

Step 4 of 5:

What are the MAD, MSE and MAPE scores for the exponentially smoothed forecast? Round any intermediate calculations, if necessary, to no less than six decimal places, and round your final answer to one decimal place.

Step 5 of 5:

Based on the MAPE scores, which forecast is best?

Exponential smoothing, because the MAPE score is lowest.

Three-period moving average, because the MAPE score is lowest.

Three-period moving average, because the MAPE score is highest.

Exponential smoothing, because the MAPE score is highest.

Answer 1

Step 1:

Month	Profit ($)	3-period moving average	Error	|Error|	Error^2	Error Percentage
Jan-12	6,150
Feb-12	5,903
Mar-12	5,304
Apr-12	5,077	5785.667	-708.667	708.667	502208.917	13.96
May-12	5,320	5428.000	-108	108	11664	2.03
Jun-12	5,998	5233.667	764.333	764.333	584204.935	12.74
Jul-12	7,419	5465.000	1954	1954	3818116	26.34
Aug-12	6,299	6245.667	53.333	53.333	2844.409	0.85
Sep-12	6,012	6572.000	560	560	313600	9.31
Oct-12		6576.667		MAD	MSE	MAPE
				464.889	872106.377	10.87

3-period moving average for next time period = $6576.667

Step 2:

The MAD, MSE and MAPE scores for the three-period moving average are

MAD = 464.889

MSE = 872106.377

MAPE = 10.87

Please post the remaining parts in another post.