Question

The following data contains monthly U.S. domestic air miles traveled during the years 1970-2004 , determine...

The following data contains monthly U.S. domestic air miles traveled during the years 1970-2004 , determine the trend and seasonality for the years 1995-2004 and Try both additive and multiplicative models and for the multiplicative model, use only one constraint: the average of seasonal indices set to 1

Year Month DATA
1970 1 9764490
1970 2 8163943
1970 3 9875362
1970 4 9289053
1970 5 10029494
1970 6 11821707
1970 7 12630952
1970 8 13495546
1970 9 10283314
1970 10 9382270
1970 11 8620519
1970 12 10294014
1971 1 9891862
1971 2 8442652
1971 3 9606332
1971 4 10549641
1971 5 10254733
1971 6 11466804
1971 7 12958264
1971 8 13336251
1971 9 10583464
1971 10 10517398
1971 11 9411420
1971 12 11293565
1972 1 11058573
1972 2 9652325
1972 3 11346626
1972 4 11599434
1972 5 11431268
1972 6 13285600
1972 7 14382050
1972 8 15093087
1972 9 12033832
1972 10 11834084
1972 11 11088399
1972 12 12577357
1973 1 12006797
1973 2 10616113
1973 3 12440709
1973 4 12742187
1973 5 12650366
1973 6 14383418
1973 7 15409859
1973 8 16368557
1973 9 12674412
1973 10 12374474
1973 11 11464940
1973 12 12552210
1974 1 12407283
1974 2 11187567
1974 3 13176393
1974 4 13124302
1974 5 12990959
1974 6 14493146
1974 7 14902380
1974 8 16052990
1974 9 12202773
1974 10 12100460
1974 11 10686266
1974 12 12662233
1975 1 12019893
1975 2 10500716
1975 3 12713806
1975 4 11673749
1975 5 12357257
1975 6 14276341
1975 7 15435158
1975 8 16624947
1975 9 12361436
1975 10 12766014
1975 11 11691921
1975 12 13218384
1976 1 13254630
1976 2 12175484
1976 3 13543634
1976 4 14036530
1976 5 14010283
1976 6 15535527
1976 7 16978531
1976 8 17420060
1976 9 13602124
1976 10 13689445
1976 11 12364527
1976 12 14455513
1977 1 14373196
1977 2 12329470
1977 3 14738239
1977 4 14710867
1977 5 14659223
1977 6 16277665
1977 7 18047300
1977 8 18707711
1977 9 14972330
1977 10 15439386
1977 11 14132105
1977 12 16227881
1978 1 15806970
1978 2 13824317
1978 3 17588821
1978 4 16757513
1978 5 17084245
1978 6 19524683
1978 7 21443791
1978 8 22619647
1978 9 18107814
1978 10 17871189
1978 11 16794325
1978 12 18348797
1979 1 18294077
1979 2 16903248
1979 3 21218361
1979 4 19350616
1979 5 19115750
1979 6 22326132
1979 7 24419704
1979 8 26390500
1979 9 20062084
1979 10 20007513
1979 11 18820830
1979 12 19434733
1980 1 18888523
1980 2 17566896
1980 3 20906087
1980 4 19478493
1980 5 19480615
1980 6 22093339
1980 7 23299604
1980 8 24738852
1980 9 18463981
1980 10 18951070
1980 11 16899075
1980 12 19148505
1981 1 18224444
1981 2 16045824
1981 3 18765833
1981 4 19241203
1981 5 20744610
1981 6 21463561
1981 7 23183844
1981 8 23293501
1981 9 18717668
1981 10 19170466
1981 11 17292854
1981 12 19158670
1982 1 18602035
1982 2 16981003
1982 3 20677117
1982 4 20450117
1982 5 20831958
1982 6 23081980
1982 7 24489917
1982 8 25101870
1982 9 19661081
1982 10 20521372
1982 11 18812692
1982 12 20768163
1983 1 20571953
1983 2 19182406
1983 3 24452800
1983 4 21638830
1983 5 22272054
1983 6 25136628
1983 7 25861690
1983 8 26304210
1983 9 21349163
1983 10 22348192
1983 11 20111543
1983 12 21695077
1984 1 20763689
1984 2 19506315
1984 3 23912658
1984 4 23340775
1984 5 24342854
1984 6 26685554
1984 7 27075058
1984 8 28875238
1984 9 23662639
1984 10 24060953
1984 11 22196264
1984 12 23471451
1985 1 22920951
1985 2 20930439
1985 3 27074946
1985 4 26041326
1985 5 27412406
1985 6 28964979
1985 7 30951538
1985 8 31868347
1985 9 24540425
1985 10 25406701
1985 11 22976538
1985 12 26566014
1986 1 25121787
1986 2 23402061
1986 3 29522388
1986 4 27319572
1986 5 28741781
1986 6 30923349
1986 7 33583578
1986 8 36174025
1986 9 27748521
1986 10 28443765
1986 11 26730665
1986 12 29559329
1987 1 28229052
1987 2 27555828
1987 3 34500059
1987 4 33654013
1987 5 34314680
1987 6 35714792
1987 7 39289976
1987 8 41038152
1987 9 31330255
1987 10 32392072
1987 11 29626430
1987 12 31408465
1988 1 30155865
1988 2 29415931
1988 3 35885639
1988 4 33781984
1988 5 35021883
1988 6 37829675
1988 7 40421181
1988 8 42520021
1988 9 33446941
1988 10 35066349
1988 11 32142316
1988 12 33075791
1989 1 31847259
1989 2 29059006
1989 3 35684128
1989 4 33223675
1989 5 35058897
1989 6 39724389
1989 7 41496902
1989 8 43976160
1989 9 34386570
1989 10 35824241
1989 11 33488285
1989 12 34758162
1990 1 33784252
1990 2 31595968
1990 3 38283268
1990 4 36578004
1990 5 37270770
1990 6 41433961
1990 7 43994930
1990 8 46704131
1990 9 36571824
1990 10 37557015
1990 11 34506061
1990 12 35865930
1991 1 33205218
1991 2 28324500
1991 3 33999736
1991 4 34971280
1991 5 37158876
1991 6 40515803
1991 7 43531978
1991 8 46172216
1991 9 36566697
1991 10 37688862
1991 11 33434415
1991 12 37053977
1992 1 33587330
1992 2 32055101
1992 3 37676259
1992 4 35447356
1992 5 37950665
1992 6 43948846
1992 7 48387284
1992 8 50622572
1992 9 39799559
1992 10 38763675
1992 11 35363847
1992 12 37339787
1993 1 35722829
1993 2 32822005
1993 3 39487287
1993 4 38649904
1993 5 40266226
1993 6 42695464
1993 7 45769648
1993 8 47536328
1993 9 39706294
1993 10 41150285
1993 11 36804344
1993 12 38301074
1994 1 36147521
1994 2 33507570
1994 3 42250601
1994 4 39696851
1994 5 41595696
1994 6 44922125
1994 7 48467134
1994 8 49459244
1994 9 42016203
1994 10 43319244
1994 11 40004315
1994 12 41327699
1995 1 39205009
1995 2 35739554
1995 3 43937773
1995 4 42352538
1995 5 43324514
1995 6 46889629
1995 7 48997717
1995 8 50526787
1995 9 42582573
1995 10 44009178
1995 11 40736831
1995 12 41836154
1996 1 39543018
1996 2 39506864
1996 3 47423431
1996 4 44526750
1996 5 46788716
1996 6 50214714
1996 7 52236468
1996 8 54134690
1996 9 44864961
1996 10 47172091
1996 11 42087969
1996 12 46229951
1997 1 43511658
1997 2 40551896
1997 3 50706540
1997 4 46818886
1997 5 48752398
1997 6 51820936
1997 7 54308154
1997 8 55919283
1997 9 46896533
1997 10 48665485
1997 11 44915457
1997 12 47339463
1998 1 44182984
1998 2 42086273
1998 3 50732233
1998 4 49550579
1998 5 51118479
1998 6 53794004
1998 7 56586490
1998 8 56513991
1998 9 46326013
1998 10 50224401
1998 11 46502635
1998 12 48281368
1999 1 45487238
1999 2 42720310
1999 3 53311859
1999 4 51007230
1999 5 51944258
1999 6 55987230
1999 7 59692609
1999 8 59221314
1999 9 50347207
1999 10 53615572
1999 11 50315566
1999 12 48641246
2000 1 46015874
2000 2 46373713
2000 3 56736209
2000 4 54942720
2000 5 56804185
2000 6 60876153
2000 7 63062000
2000 8 61889686
2000 9 52606002
2000 10 54791011
2000 11 52179189
2000 12 51409251
2001 1 49326551
2001 2 46104811
2001 3 57390184
2001 4 55357669
2001 5 56165228
2001 6 60509825
2001 7 63548437
2001 8 63985244
2001 9 36204817
2001 10 41107872
2001 11 41999542
2001 12 44860314
2002 1 43248403
2002 2 41473991
2002 3 52694682
2002 4 48883539
2002 5 51347720
2002 6 55473097
2002 7 58229403
2002 8 58702568
2002 9 45871019
2002 10 49188255
2002 11 45025064
2002 12 50819815
2003 1 45839364
2003 2 41516227
2003 3 50046567
2003 4 45499366
2003 5 48061447
2003 6 53442227
2003 7 58516552
2003 8 57608972
2003 9 46019936
2003 10 49856880
2003 11 47246317
2003 12 51303892
2004 1 47048446
2004 2 45910086
2004 3 55345202
2004 4 54328181

Homework Answers

Answer #1

Excel models were made and solved. Snapshots are attached below:

Data -

Additive Model with Trend and Seasonality indeces:

Multiplicative model with trend and seasonality indeces (sum of which is set to 1 as required in the question):

Due to paucity of space and snapshotting limitations, I am not able to show the rest of months. Attached is a snapshot of the models with data:

Additive model output:

BaseAdd 45.853 Base+Trend*Month#+Lookupseasonality stddeverrors 1.905
TrendAdd 0.067 Seasonalities average to 0 RSQ 0.858
SSE 1164
1 -5.174 MonthNumber Month Month Airline Miles (billions) Forecast Error Sq Error Forecast Formula
2 -7.383 1 01-01-1995 1 39.21 40.75 -1.54 2.37 =baseadd+trend*D5+VLOOKUP(F5,$A$4:$B$15,2)
3 2.185 2 01-02-1995 2 35.74 38.60 -2.86 8.20
4 -0.388 3 01-03-1995 3 43.94 48.24 -4.30 18.49
5 1.097 4 01-04-1995 4 42.35 45.73 -3.38 11.42
6 4.886 5 01-05-1995 5 43.32 47.28 -3.96 15.67
7 7.727 6 01-06-1995 6 46.89 51.14 -4.25 18.05
8 8.030 7 01-07-1995 7 49.00 54.05 -5.05 25.49
9 -3.901 8 01-08-1995 8 50.53 54.42 -3.89 15.12
10 -0.978 9 01-09-1995 9 42.58 42.55 0.03 0.00
11 -4.113 10 01-10-1995 10 44.01 45.54 -1.53 2.35
12 -1.990 11 01-11-1995 11 40.74 42.47 -1.73 3.01
mean 0.000 12 01-12-1995 12 41.84 44.66 -2.83 7.99
13 01-01-1996 1 39.54 41.54 -2.00 4.01
14 01-02-1996 2 39.51 39.40 0.10 0.01
15 01-03-1996 3 47.42 49.04 -1.61 2.60
16 01-04-1996 4 44.53 46.53 -2.00 4.01
17 01-05-1996 5 46.79 48.08 -1.29 1.67
18 01-06-1996 6 50.21 51.94 -1.72 2.97
19 01-07-1996 7 52.24 54.85 -2.61 6.81
20 01-08-1996 8 54.13 55.21 -1.08 1.17
21 01-09-1996 9 44.86 43.35 1.52 2.30
22 01-10-1996 10 47.17 46.34 0.83 0.69
23 01-11-1996 11 42.09 43.27 -1.18 1.40
24 01-12-1996 12 46.23 45.46 0.77 0.59
25 01-01-1997 1 43.51 42.34 1.17 1.36
26 01-02-1997 2 40.55 40.20 0.35 0.12
27 01-03-1997 3 50.71 49.84 0.87 0.76
28 01-04-1997 4 46.82 47.33 -0.51 0.26
29 01-05-1997 5 48.75 48.88 -0.13 0.02
30 01-06-1997 6 51.82 52.74 -0.92 0.84
31 01-07-1997 7 54.31 55.64 -1.34 1.78
32 01-08-1997 8 55.92 56.01 -0.09 0.01
33 01-09-1997 9 46.90 44.15 2.75 7.55
34 01-10-1997 10 48.67 47.14 1.53 2.33
35 01-11-1997 11 44.92 44.07 0.85 0.72
36 01-12-1997 12 47.34 46.26 1.08 1.17
37 01-01-1998 1 44.18 43.14 1.04 1.08
38 01-02-1998 2 42.09 41.00 1.09 1.18
39 01-03-1998 3 50.73 50.63 0.10 0.01
40 01-04-1998 4 49.55 48.13 1.42 2.02
41 01-05-1998 5 51.12 49.68 1.44 2.07
42 01-06-1998 6 53.79 53.54 0.26 0.07
43 01-07-1998 7 56.59 56.44 0.14 0.02
44 01-08-1998 8 56.51 56.81 -0.30 0.09
45 01-09-1998 9 46.33 44.95 1.38 1.90
46 01-10-1998 10 50.22 47.94 2.29 5.23
47 01-11-1998 11 46.50 44.87 1.63 2.67
48 01-12-1998 12 48.28 47.06 1.22 1.49
49 01-01-1999 1 45.49 43.94 1.55 2.39
50 01-02-1999 2 42.72 41.80 0.92 0.85
51 01-03-1999 3 53.31 51.43 1.88 3.53
52 01-04-1999 4 51.01 48.93 2.08 4.33
53 01-05-1999 5 51.94 50.48 1.47 2.15
54 01-06-1999 6 55.99 54.33 1.65 2.73
55 01-07-1999 7 59.69 57.24 2.45 6.01
56 01-08-1999 8 59.22 57.61 1.61 2.59
57 01-09-1999 9 50.35 45.75 4.60 21.17
58 01-10-1999 10 53.62 48.74 4.88 23.80
59 01-11-1999 11 50.32 45.67 4.65 21.60
60 01-12-1999 12 48.64 47.86 0.78 0.61
61 01-01-2000 1 46.02 44.74 1.28 1.63
62 01-02-2000 2 46.37 42.60 3.78 14.26
63 01-03-2000 3 56.74 52.23 4.50 20.29
64 01-04-2000 4 54.94 49.73 5.22 27.21
65 01-05-2000 5 56.80 51.28 5.53 30.54
66 01-06-2000 6 60.88 55.13 5.74 32.98
67 01-07-2000 7 63.06 58.04 5.02 25.21
68 01-08-2000 8 61.89 58.41 3.48 12.11
69 01-09-2000 9 52.61 46.55 6.06 36.73
70 01-10-2000 10 54.79 49.54 5.26 27.62
71 01-11-2000 11 52.18 46.47 5.71 32.63
72 01-12-2000 12 51.41 48.66 2.75 7.58
73 01-01-2001 1 49.33 45.54 3.79 14.34
74 01-02-2001 2 46.10 43.40 2.71 7.33
75 01-03-2001 3 57.39 53.03 4.36 19.00
76 01-04-2001 4 55.36 50.53 4.83 23.35
77 01-05-2001 5 56.17 52.08 4.09 16.72
78 01-06-2001 6 60.51 55.93 4.58 20.96
79 01-07-2001 7 63.55 58.84 4.71 22.17
80 01-08-2001 8 63.99 59.21 4.78 22.81
81 01-09-2001 9 36.20 47.34 -11.14 124.09
82 01-10-2001 10 41.11 50.33 -9.23 85.13
83 01-11-2001 11 42.00 47.27 -5.27 27.73
84 01-12-2001 12 44.86 49.46 -4.60 21.12
85 01-01-2002 1 43.25 46.34 -3.09 9.55
86 01-02-2002 2 41.47 44.20 -2.72 7.41
87 01-03-2002 3 52.69 53.83 -1.14 1.29
88 01-04-2002 4 48.88 51.32 -2.44 5.96
89 01-05-2002 5 51.35 52.88 -1.53 2.33
90 01-06-2002 6 55.47 56.73 -1.26 1.58
91 01-07-2002 7 58.23 59.64 -1.41 1.99
92 01-08-2002 8 58.70 60.01 -1.31 1.70
93 01-09-2002 9 45.87 48.14 -2.27 5.16
94 01-10-2002 10 49.19 51.13 -1.95 3.78
95 01-11-2002 11 45.03 48.06 -3.04 9.24
96 01-12-2002 12 50.82 50.25 0.57 0.32
97 01-01-2003 1 45.84 47.14 -1.30 1.68
98 01-02-2003 2 41.52 44.99 -3.48 12.10
99 01-03-2003 3 50.05 54.63 -4.58 21.00
100 01-04-2003 4 45.50 52.12 -6.62 43.87
101 01-05-2003 5 48.06 53.67 -5.61 31.50
102 01-06-2003 6 53.44 57.53 -4.09 16.71
103 01-07-2003 7 58.52 60.44 -1.92 3.69
104 01-08-2003 8 57.61 60.81 -3.20 10.23
105 01-09-2003 9 46.02 48.94 -2.92 8.54
106 01-10-2003 10 49.86 51.93 -2.08 4.31
107 01-11-2003 11 47.25 48.86 -1.62 2.61
108 01-12-2003 12 51.30 51.05 0.25 0.06
109 01-01-2004 1 47.05 47.94 -0.89 0.79
110 01-02-2004 2 45.91 45.79 0.12 0.01
111 01-03-2004 3 55.35 55.43 -0.08 0.01
112 01-04-2004 4 54.33 52.92 1.41 `

I am not able to add the Multiplicative model due to character limitations in the Answer here.

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