Chance of payment on time that is in 60 days is 60%. Since selling price is $44,00,000, there is a 40% chance that payment will not be made on time.
Expected collection = 4400000*60%+0*40%=$2640000
Cost of product sold = $2400000 which means if sale is made there will be surplus received if collection is made on time.
So, Take-a-chance should make the sale.
Required return = 18% annually that is 18/6=3% for 60 days assuming 360 days in a year.
Expected NPV = $(2640000/1.03-2400000)
=$163106.8.
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