Question

Given the Treasury rates shown below, what is the expected 2 year Treasury rate one year from today? Term Yield 1 year 2% 2 year 7% 3 year 9%

Answer 1

This needs to be calculated based on the Pure Expectations Theory, according to which short term rates are an indicator of future long term rates. According to this theory, for the question, if you invest in a 3 year bond, it would yield the same return as it would have yielded if you would have invested first in a 1 year bond and then invested in a 2 year bond, the proceeds from first.

(1 + Yield on a 3 Yr Bond)³ = (1 + Yield on 1 Yr bond) * (1 + Yield on 2 Yr Bond 1 Yr later)²

(1 + 9%)³ = (1 + 2%) * (1 + Yield on 2 Yr Bond 1 Yr later)²

1.2950 = 1.02 * (1 + Yield on 2 Yr Bond 1 Yr later)²

1.2696 = (1 + Yield on 2 Yr Bond 1 Yr later)²

1.1268 = 1 + Yield on 2 Yr Bond 1 Yr later

Yield on 2 Yr Bond 1 Yr later = 0.1268

Yield on 2 Yr Bond 1 Yr later = 12.68%