Question

​Assume that exchange rate movements were unusually stable in a recent period (but will not continue to be so stable in the future) that was used to derive the estimated maximum expected loss based on the VaR method. The estimated expected loss derived using VaR based on that recent period will likely overestimate the actual maximum expected loss in the future.

Seleccione una:

a. ​True

b. ​False

Answer 1

TRUE

REASON :

The most popular and traditional measure of risk is volatility. The main problem with volatility, however, is that it does not care about the direction of an investment's movement: stock can be volatile because it suddenly jumps higher. Of course, investors aren't distressed by gains.

For investors, the risk is about the odds of losing money, and VAR is based on that common-sense fact. By assuming investors care about the odds of a really big loss, VAR answers the question, "What is my worst-case scenario?" or "How much could I lose in a really bad month?"

You can see how the "VAR question" has three elements: a relatively high level of confidence (typically either 95% or 99%), a time period (a day, a month or a year) and an estimate of investment loss (expressed either in dollar or percentage terms).