Question

Suppose we do 100 draws, with replacement, from an urn containing an unknown mixture of black and white balls. All 100 draws come out black. Which of the following is correct?

Group of answer choices

A. The laws of probability are consistent with any of the above conclusions; it depends on the prior probabilities.

B. According to the laws of probability, the next draw is more likely to be white than black.

C. None of the above.

D. According to the laws of probability, the next draw is equally likely to be black vs. white.

E. According to the laws of probability, the next draw is more likely to be black than white.

Answer 1

A)

option A is not correct here we draw the balls with repalcement from an urn which means no dependence on prior probablities.

B)

option b is not correct the reason is same as option A. Here is the case of with replacement so no draw is more likely to be of another. Both black and white balls are equally likely to occur.

C)

option c is not correct beacuse option D is correct so we cannot say that none of the given option is correct

D)

option D is correct because here is the case of with replacement so both black and white balls are equally likely to occur.

E)

option E is not correct the reason is similar to that of option B . Here is the case of with replacement so no draw is more likely to be of another. Both black and white balls are equally likely to occur.

Hence option D is the correct option. why other options are not correct can be easily seen from the above justifications.