A consumer product company is considering a new product launch. The company’s scenario analysis showed the following results: if the economy is in expansion, the product has
80%
chance of success, and if the economy goes intorecession, the product has only 20%
chance of success. The Economy Ministry’s forecast suggests that in the next one-year period there is
60%
chance of recession.
What is the chance that the new product is not successful?
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