Question

# Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 14...

Consider the following time series data.

 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 14 17 12 18 15

Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

a. Mean absolute error.

b. Mean squared error.

c. Mean absolute percentage error.

d. What is the forecast for week ?

 Time period Actual Value(A) historical Data Forecast(F) Forecast error E=|A-F| Squared Forecast Error |A-F|A 1 19 2 14 19.00 5.00 25.00 0.36 3 17 16.50 0.50 0.25 0.03 4 12 16.67 4.67 21.78 0.39 5 18 15.50 2.50 6.25 0.14 6 15 16.00 1.00 1.00 0.07 7 15.83 Total 13.666667 54.27777778 0.98 Average 2.73 10.86 19.62% MAD MSE MAPE

a)

Mean absolute error =2.73 (please try 2.7 if one decimal place is required)

b. Mean squared error =10.86 (please try 10.9  if one decimal place is required)

c. Mean absolute percentage error.=19.62 %  (please try 19.6 if one decimal place is required)

d. What is the forecast for week =15.83  (please try 15.8 if one decimal place is required)