Question

Consider the following time series data.

Week |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |

Value |
19 | 14 | 17 | 12 | 18 | 15 |

Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

Round your answers to two decimal places.

**a.** Mean absolute error.

**b.** Mean squared error.

**c.** Mean absolute percentage error.

**d.** What is the forecast for week ?

Answer #1

Time period | Actual Value(A) | historical Data Forecast(F) | Forecast error E=|A-F| | Squared Forecast Error | |A-F|A |

1 | 19 | ||||

2 | 14 | 19.00 | 5.00 | 25.00 | 0.36 |

3 | 17 | 16.50 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.03 |

4 | 12 | 16.67 | 4.67 | 21.78 | 0.39 |

5 | 18 | 15.50 | 2.50 | 6.25 | 0.14 |

6 | 15 | 16.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.07 |

7 | 15.83 | ||||

Total | 13.666667 | 54.27777778 | 0.98 | ||

Average | 2.73 | 10.86 | 19.62% | ||

MAD | MSE | MAPE |

a)

Mean absolute error =2.73 (please try 2.7 if one decimal place is required)

**b.** Mean squared error =10.86 (please try
10.9 if one decimal place is required)

**c.** Mean absolute percentage error.=19.62
% (please try 19.6 if one decimal place is required)

**d.** What is the forecast for week
=15.83 (please try 15.8 if one decimal place is
required)

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3
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the next week, compute the following measures of forecast
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18
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2
3
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Value
18
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