Question

Bayes Theorem:
In June 2016, the United Kingdom held a referendum on its membership in the European Union. In the overall population, a proportion 51% of people wanted the UK to remain in the EU, while the remaining 49% wanted the UK to leave. The overall voter turnout was 72%. Of those who voted, 48% voted to remain, while 52% voted to leave.

• What is the probability that someone who wanted the UK to remain in the EU voted?
• What's the probability that someone who wanted to the UK to leave the EU voted?

Answer 1

Let us denote the events

A : a randomly selected voter actually voted

B : a randomly selected voter wanted the UK to remain in the EU

Given

Now,

The probability that someone who wanted the UK to remain in the EU voted

The probability that someone who wanted to the UK to leave the EU voted