Question

# Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 14...

Consider the following time series data.

 Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 14 16 10 19 13

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

 (a) Mean absolute error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (b) Mean squared error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (c) Mean absolute percentage error If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places. (d) What is the forecast for week 7?

 Time period Actual Value(A) Moving avg. Forecast(F) Forecast error E=|A-F| Squared Forecast Error |A-F|A 1 18 2 14 18 4 16 0.2857 3 16 14 2 4 0.1250 4 10 16 6 36 0.6000 5 19 10 9 81 0.4737 6 13 19 6 36 0.4615 7 13 Total 27 173 1.95 Average 5.40 34.60 38.92% MAD MSE MAPE a) mean absolute error= 5.4 b) mean squared error = 34.6 c) mean absolute % error= 38.92% d) forecast for week 7 = 13

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