An investor holds two stocks, each of which can rise (R), remain unchanged (U), or decline (D) on any particular day.
Assume that for the first stock (on a particular day)
P(R) = 0.4 , P(U) = 0.5 , P(D ) = 0.1
and that for the second stock (on a particular day)
P(R) = 0.3 , P(U) = 0.4 , P(D ) = 0.3
Assuming that these stocks move independently, find the probability that both stocks decline; the probability that exactly one stock rises; the probability that exactly one stock is unchanged; the probability that both stocks rise. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
ANSWER:
1)
Both decline = P1(D) * P2(D)
= 0.1 * 0.3
= 0.03
(stock 1 declines AND stock 2 declines)
2)
Exactly one rises = P1(R) * [P2(U) + P2(D)] + P2(R) *[P1(U) + P1(D)]
= 0.4*[0.4+ 0.3] + 0.3*[0.5 + 0.1]
= 0.28 + 0.18
= 0.46
(stock 1 rises AND {stock 2 declines or remains unchanged}) OR
(stock 2 rises AND {stock 1 declines or remains unchanged})
3)
Exactly one unchanged = P1(U) * [P2(R) + P2(D)] + P2(U) *[P1(R) + P1(D)]
= 0.5*[0.3 + 0.3] + 0.4*[0.4 + 0.1]
= 0.3 + 0.2
= 0.5
4)
Both rise = P1(R)*P2(R)
= 0.4 * 0.3
= 0.12
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