Question

4. Give an example of how you might use a trend line to make a prediction about an outcome. Identify the variables and explain the rationale for using the trend line to predict the outcome.

Answer #1

**GDP of a country over the
year**. This is an example of trend (most of the cases it is
an exponential trend). Here the variables are
**"GDP"** and **"Year"**. This is trend
because economic series are growing and percentage changes are
stable in long run. Exponential trend is estimated by linear model
after taking log. A trend line is most reliable when R square vale
is close to 1. Trend line may be linear, logarithmic, exponential,
polynomial etc. Another example of linear trend is "**the
sales of air conditioner over around 15 years period**"
where the variables are **"Sales of air
conditioner****"** and
**"Year"**.

Give an example of how you might use a trend line to make a
prediction about an outcome. Identify the variables and explain the
rationale for using the trend line to predict the outcome. (3
points)

1. In a testing experiment:
a. What is the difference between a hypothesis and a
prediction?
b. How do you decide if the outcome of the experiment is/is not
consistent with the prediction?
c. How do you make a judgment about the hypothesis? How do the
assumptions you made in your method enter into making this
judgment?
2. In an observational experiment:
a. What is an independent variable?
b. What is the dependent variable?
c. Give an example from your...

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Use an example of quarterly data to explain how you would measure
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Can someone who knows how to use excel run a linear trend line
off of this data and give me the linear trend equation that comes
out of the data? Please post the graph with the linear trend and
the equation which is y=?x+?
Quarter
X
Y = ( Exchange Rate)
Y4Q1
1
5.60
Y4Q2
2
6.32
Y4Q3
3
6.23
Y4Q4
4
6.03
Y5Q1
5
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Y5Q2
6
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7
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Y5Q4
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Y6Q1
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Y6Q2
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