Question

Suppose that it snows in Greenland an average of once every 20 days, and when it does, glaciers have a 21% chance of growing. When it does not snow in Greenland, glaciers have only a 3% chance of growing.

What is the probability that it is snowing in Greenland when glaciers are growing? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

Answer 1

Let G be the event that the glaciers grow

Let S represent the event of snowing in Greenland.

Let S' represent the compliment of the event of snowing in Greenland i.e. no snowing in Greenland

Then we are given:

P(S) = 1/20 = 0.05

P(S') = 0.95

P(G/S) = 0.21

P(G/S') = 0.03

We need to find the probability P(S/G). Using Baye's theorem we have:

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