Question

It is estimated that 6 out of every 1,000 people have autism spectrum disorder, i.e., there is a 0.6% chance of having the disorder. Of people with the disorder, 80% are male. Let A be the event that a person has autism spectrum disorder, and M be the event that a person is a male. Assume that it is equally likely to be male or female, that is, P(M) = P(M^c) = 0.5.

What does P(M | A) mean in words, and what is the value?

What does P(A | M) mean in words, and what is the value?

What is the probability that a random person from the population is a female with autism spectrum disorder?

Answer 1

P(M|A) means probability of M happened by which probability of A was already happened

P(M|A)=n(M^A)/n(A)

=5/6

P(M|A)=0.84

P(A|M) means probability of A happened by which probability of M was already happened

P(A|M)=n(A^M)/n(M)

The value is so negligible since n(M) is huge

Probability of random person from the population is a female with autumn spectrum disorder = Female with autumn spectrum/ autumn spectrum disorder

= 20% of 6/ 6

=1/6 =>0.17

The required answer is 0.17