Question

The price to earnings ratio (P/E) is an important tool in financial work. A random sample of 14 large U.S. banks (J. P. Morgan, Bank of America, and others) gave the following P/E ratios.†

24

16

22

14

12

13

17

22

15

19

23

13

11

18

The sample mean is

x ≈ 17.1.

Generally speaking, a low P/E ratio indicates a "value" or bargain stock. Suppose a recent copy of a magazine indicated that the P/E ratio of a certain stock index is μ = 18. Let x be a random variable representing the P/E ratio of all large U.S. bank stocks. We assume that x has a normal distribution and σ = 4.8. Do these data indicate that the P/E ratio of all U.S. bank stocks is less than 18? Use α = 0.01.

(a) What is the level of significance?


State the null and alternate hypotheses. Will you use a left-tailed, right-tailed, or two-tailed test?

H₀: μ = 18; H₁:  μ ≠ 18; two-tailedH₀: μ ≠ 18; H₁:  μ = 18; two-tailed     H₀: μ = 18; H₁:  μ < 18; left-tailedH₀: μ = 18; H₁:  μ > 18; right-tailed

(b) What sampling distribution will you use? Explain the rationale for your choice of sampling distribution.

The Student's t, since n is large with unknown σ.The Student's t, since we assume that x has a normal distribution with known σ.     The standard normal, since we assume that x has a normal distribution with known σ.The standard normal, since we assume that x has a normal distribution with unknown σ.

Compute the z value of the sample test statistic. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)


(c) Find (or estimate) the P-value. (Round your answer to four decimal places.)


Sketch the sampling distribution and show the area corresponding to the P-value.

(d) Based on your answers in parts (a) to (c), will you reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis? Are the data statistically significant at level α?

At the α = 0.01 level, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude the data are statistically significant.At the α = 0.01 level, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude the data are not statistically significant.     At the α = 0.01 level, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and conclude the data are statistically significant.At the α = 0.01 level, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and conclude the data are not statistically significant.

(e) State your conclusion in the context of the application.

There is sufficient evidence at the 0.01 level to conclude that the P/E ratio of all large U.S. bank stocks is less than 18There is insufficient evidence at the 0.01 level to conclude that the P/E ratio of all large U.S. bank stocks is less than 18    

Answer 1

a)

0.01 is level of significance

H0: μ = 18; H1: μ < 18; left-tailed

b)

The standard normal, since we assume that x has a normal distribution with known σ.

Test statistic,
z = (xbar - mu)/(sigma/sqrt(n))
z = (17.1 - 18)/(4.8/sqrt(14))
z = -0.70

c)

P-value Approach
P-value = 0.2420

d)

At the α = 0.01 level, we fail to reject the null hypothesis and conclude the data are not statistically significant.

e)

There is insufficient evidence at the 0.01 level to conclude that the P/E ratio of all large U.S. bank stocks is less than 18