Question

Consider a population of voters. Suppose that there are N = 3,000 voters in the population, 30% of whom favor Jones. Identify the event favors Jones as a success S. It is evident that the probability of S on trial 1 is 0.30. Consider the event B that S occurs on the second trial. Then B can occur two ways: The first two trials are both successes or the first trial is a failure and the second is a success. Show that P(B) = 0.3. (Enter your probabilities as fractions.) P(B) = P(SS) + P(FS) = 900 3000 + 2100 3000 = What is P(B|the first trial is S)? (Enter your probability as a fraction.) P(B|the first trial is S) = Does this conditional probability differ markedly from P(B)? They are nowhere near close. They are very close.

Answer 1