Question

According to a 2018 article in Esquire magazine, approximately 70% of males over age 70 will develop cancerous cells in their prostate. Prostate cancer is second only to skin cancer as the most common form of cancer for males in the United States. One of the most common tests for the detection of prostate cancer is the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test. However, this test is known to have a high false-positive rate (tests that come back positive for cancer when no cancer is present). Suppose there is a 0.05 probability that a male patient has prostate cancer before testing. The probability of a false-positive test is 0.7, and the probability of a false-negative (no indication of cancer when cancer is actually present) is 0.25.

(a)

What is the probability that the male patient has prostate cancer if the PSA test comes back positive? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

(b)

What is the probability that the male patient has prostate cancer if the PSA test comes back negative? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

(c)

For older men, the prior probability of having cancer increases. Suppose that the prior probability of the male patient is 0.3 rather than 0.05. What is the probability that the male patient has prostate cancer if the PSA test comes back positive? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

What is the probability that the male patient has prostate cancer if the PSA test comes back negative? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

(d)

What can you infer about the PSA test from the results of parts (a), (b), and (c)?

The probability of a male actually having cancer if the PSA test comes back positive is  ---Select--- low high . The probability of a male actually having cancer if the PSA test comes back negative is  ---Select--- low is high , indicating that the test  ---Select--- is is not very accurate. For older men, the probability of actually having cancer if the PSA test comes back positive  ---Select--- increases decreases . The probability of actually having cancer if the test comes back negative  ---Select--- increases decreases for older men, compared to younger men.

Answer 1