Question

Consider the accompanying time series. a. Forecast the demand for each quarter in Year 4 using...

Consider the accompanying time series.

a. Forecast the demand for each quarter in Year 4 using multiplicative decomposition.

b. Interpret the meaning of the seasonal components.

c. Calculate the MAD for this forecast.

Year_1_Quarter   Year_ 1_Demand   Year_2_Quarter   Year_2_Demand   Year_3_Quarter   Year_3_Demand
1 4 1 5 1 8
2 10 2 13 2 16
3 11    3 11 3 14
4 5 4 9 4    8

.

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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Homework Answers

Answer #1

The MINITAB output is:

Method

Model type Multiplicative Model
Data Demand
Length 12
NMissing 0

Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 5.46 + 0.593×t

Seasonal Indices

Period Index
1 0.67690
2 1.47660
3 1.33477
4 0.51174

Accuracy Measures

MAPE 12.2786
MAD 0.9778
MSD 1.3145

Forecasts

Period Forecast
13 8.9099
14 20.3116
15 19.1519
16 7.6460

a. Forecast the demand for each quarter in Year 4 using multiplicative decomposition.

Forecasts

Period Forecast
13 8.9099
14 20.3116
15 19.1519
16 7.6460

b. Interpret the meaning of the seasonal components.

Quarter 2 has the highest demand, followed by Quarter 3, followed by Quarter 1 and then by Quarter 4.

c. Calculate the MAD for this forecast.

MAD 0.9778
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