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A particle measurement system in Shandong, China measures the count of particles less than 10 microns...

A particle measurement system in Shandong, China measures the count of particles less than 10 microns in diameter (PM10). It produces daily averages.  It measures PM10 levels in the “alert” range of between 150 to 250 mg/m3  a number of times during the last 50 days – listed in the data sheet as “past alerts=9”.  Predict the probability of the number of “future alerts” in the next 30 days, predicted alerts = 5

past alerts=9

predicted alerts = 5

add poisson distribution too

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