The first significant digit in any number must be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9. It was discovered that first digits do not occur with equal frequency. Probabilities of occurrence to the first digit in a number are shown in the accompanying table. The probability distribution is now known as Benford's Law. For example, the following distribution represents the first digits in 219 allegedly fraudulent checks written to a bogus company by an employee attempting to embezzle funds from his employer.
Digit Probability Frequency
1 0.301 42
2 0.176 32
3 0.125 28
4 0.097 26
5 0.079 23
6 0.067 36
7 0.058 9
8 0.051 16
9 0.046 7
(a) Because these data are meant to prove that someone is guilty of fraud, what would be an appropriate level of significance when performing a goodness-of-fit test?
Use α=0.01.
(b) Using the level of significance chosen in part (a), test whether the first digits in the allegedly fraudulent checks obey Benford's Law. Do the first digits obey Benford's Law?
What are the null and alternative hypotheses?
A.
H0: The distribution of the first digits in the allegedly fraudulent checks obeys Benford's Law.
H1: The distribution of the first digits in the allegedly fraudulent checks does not obey Benford's Law.
B.
H0: The distribution of the first digits in the allegedly fraudulent checks does not obey Benford's Law.
H1: The distribution of the first digits in the allegedly fraudulent checks obeys Benford's Law.
Answer:
a) As we want prove that someone is guilty offraud; therefore we want larger level of significance
Hence correct option is 0.01
b) We need to test whether the distribution of first digits obeys Benford's law. Hence, our hypotheses will be:
H0: The distribution of the first digits in the allegedly fraudulent checks obeysBenford’s Law.
H1: The distribution of the first digits in the allegedly fraudulent checks does not obeyBenford’s Law.
Option A is correct.
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