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Winning 5K times have been decreasing over time. Can we use the regression equation that models...

Winning 5K times have been decreasing over time. Can we use the regression equation that models winning 5K times over the years to predict the winning 5K time for the year 2080? Why or why not?

Math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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Answer #1

The process of winning 5K times is known to be decreasing over time.

If we can fit a regression model for this, we will get an equation that could be used to predict winning 5K times at a later time like year 2080.

However, this assumes that the regression model holds true for that later time. This might not always be true. The model was fitted on data from a certain time period. Hence, extrapolating it to a later time point that is decades away can lead to a very poor accuracy.

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